Planning for What We Cannot Predict
October 14, 2026by Victor S. Valentine, CEO of NHSA
“Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower
If the past two years have taught nonprofit leaders anything, it is that our operating environment can change quickly and sometimes unexpectedly.
Elections and changes in government leadership routinely bring new priorities, policies and approaches, and the transition following the 2024 presidential election was no exception. Nonprofits have since navigated federal funding disruptions, changes involving diversity, equity and inclusion, questions surrounding tax-exempt activities, and proposed changes to federal grants, reimbursements and administrative requirements. In fact, recent Urban Institute research found that 35 percent of nonprofits experienced some form of government funding disruption in 2025.
As we now approach the 2026 midterm elections, which could again alter congressional leadership, oversight and federal policy priorities, nonprofit leaders have another opportunity to prepare—not for a preferred political outcome, but for various possible operating environments. We cannot build organizations based solely on the future we expect. We must also prepare for the future we do not.
That is why the National Human Services Assembly is embarking on a series of convenings both with our member CEOs and policy professionals. We believe that scenario planning should become a regular part of nonprofit governance and leadership. Scenario planning is not about predicting what will happen; it is about determining what we might do if it happens. What if the midterm elections produce significant changes in congressional priorities? What if a major federal grant is delayed, reduced or eliminated? What if reimbursement or indirect-cost rules change? What if new legislation or regulations affect an organizational program or long-held value? What if demand increases while government support declines?
Perhaps the lesson of this period is that our organizations need to become less dependent upon certainty. Traditional strategic planning asks, “Where do we want to be one or three years from now?” Scenario planning asks, “What could happen between now and then?” Succession planning adds, “Who will be prepared to lead us through it?” Together, they create something even more valuable: strategic readiness. The coming midterm elections provide an ideal moment for boards and executive teams to consider several plausible scenarios for 2027 and beyond—not because we know what will happen, but precisely because we do not. As stewards of organizations upon which millions of people depend, we have a responsibility to ask difficult questions before circumstances require immediate answers.